Washington Post/ABC Poll - Obama 54, McCain 43

From the WaPo/ABC poll:

After nearly two years of ads, rallies, debates and barnstorming, Obama is up 54 to 43 percent among likely voters, in the new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll. And the ranks of persuadable voters has dwindled to 7 percent heading into the final day. One part of McCain's steep challenge is that more than a quarter of the probable electorate has already voted - among these early birds, 59 percent said they voted for Obama, 40 percent for McCain.

Obama has firmly reestablished his advantage on handling the economy (back up to 15 points) and beaten back a challenge on taxes (he's +11 there). On handling an unexpected major crisis, what had been a double-digit McCain lead to start the fall campaign, is now a 6-point advantage for Obama.

And on the measure that most often correlates to turnout, enthusiasm, Obama holds a massive 26-point advantage in deeply enthusiastic support. In late October of 2004, George W. Bush held a nine-point edge over John F. Kerry on this metric.

CBS Poll - Obama 54, McCain 41

From CBS News:

With two days left until the presidential election, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent, a new CBS News poll finds. The margin in the new poll, released Sunday, is identical to that in a CBS News poll released Saturday.

As the number of undecided voters has dwindled, so has the number that says their minds can still change. More than nine in 10 of each candidate’s voters now say they have made up their minds about who to vote for and are not likely to change. Just seven percent of Obama voters and 8 percent of McCain voters say they still might change their minds.

Final Gallup Poll - Obama 55, McCain 45

From Gallup:

PRINCETON, NJ -- The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign.

Zogby

So, huh....what happened to that big Zogby poll on Drudge? You know, the one that claimed McCain was leading by one? Oh no!!!! All is lost!!!! Whaaaahh!!!!

Oops. Seems to have disappeared. Never mind:

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

CNN's Battleground States

CNN's Election Center page is showing their picks for the "battleground states" in this year's election, and it's another interesting bit of news.

CNN's battleground states right now include the following: North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. Important to note that these are all red states that Bush carried in 2004. If it's true that Obama will hold all of the 2004 Kerry states, plus Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia, then he wins the election.

The "extra" states that really grabbed my attention - Georgia, Montana, and Arizona - aren't listed as tossups here. Perhaps they still consider those to be narrow McCain wins. That's the probable outcome, but the numbers are very close, and the ground game is where Obama dominates. I wouldn't want to be in McCain's shoes when looking at Arizona.

Coming into the final hours, consulting these tea leaves will become useless. It's all in the hands of the voters now. It's all down to the ground game - mobilization, organization, and turnout, turnout, turnout.

If the national polling is any indication, it will be a close finish, with Obama winning by 5% in the popular vote. On the electoral vote, again: Kerry 2004, plus Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. Nevada's probably the weakest link here.

Everything else is up in the air. Those battleground states could swing either way. I could envision a scenario where heavy turnout and a sense of the inevitable results in a massive Obama sweep. Even if my "dream scenario" played out, and Obama won 400 electoral votes, I don't believe that would mean a massive political shift in America. We're really just seeing a vast rejection of George W. Bush and the Republican economy. The stock market nearly crashed, and suddenly everyone becomes a swing voter.

America remains a deeply divided nation. What gives me hope is that Obama will have an opportunity - the first real opportunity since Reagan in 1980 - to build a new coalition and shift the scales of American politics. He's going to have the football and control of the clock. Whatever happens between now and 2012 is all on him.

Now get out there and hustle, people! Fight, fight, fight!

The Global Vote and the End of the Conservative Era

This is a very interesting and enlightening Gallup poll of nations around the world on the US Presidential election. I don't know which is more humbling: the fact that so many of them choose Barack Obama over John McCain by staggering numbers, or the fact that large regions of the globe don't care. Heck, you'd think India would be interested. We've outsoursed all of our tech support there.

It's also interesting to read the global news media to get a sense of what this election means. There is a sense emerging in many circles, here and abroad, that this election marks more than a change of parties or the rejection of George W. Bush. The election of Barack Obama represents the final and complete rejection of American conservatism as practiced since Ronald Reagan.

Is that really what is happening? Is the Conservative Era finally closing? I sure hope so, but I'm sober enough to know better than that. That political machine is far too large, far too powerful, far too entrenched to merely fade away into history. That conservatism and the Republican Party is a broken brand in 2008 is obvious. But it will not disappear anytime soon.

The cynics will say that Obama is merely a caretaker, like a housemaid who cleans up the hotel room after your rock band completely trashed the place. The maids come in, fix up the place, replace all the broken furniture, and leave just as the band is rested and ready for another blistering tour. No doubt this is what movement conservitism is thinking, and much of Bush's final weeks in office will be geared toward setting as many landmines as possible, and tying Obama's hands as much as possible. They simply cannot allow the return of the New Deal, of the successful Liberal State.

For Obama and the Democrats, simply fixing the financial mess and passing some reforms here and there won't be nearly enough. The Republican Right has built a terrifying machine, one that threatens American democracy and the world. It must be destroyed, completely and totally. The Bush Doctrine must be discredited and dismantled, in all its forms. The rush towards privatization of government must cease. The rise of the private corporate military must be stopped, its leaders held accountable for their crimes.

The Milton Friedman Shock Doctrine must be dismantled and hurled into the dust. Anything less will mean the Age of Obama will be a waste. It will only be a holding pattern, while the far right builds up strength for the next assault. And, like all things in nature, these cycles are self-repeating, but at ever faster speeds. The mad rush towards corporatism and fascism will be accelerated. This time we witnessed the Patriot Act, the doctrine of Preemptive War, torture, indefinite detentions, Guantanamo Bay, Abu Graib, domestic spying on a grand scale, Blackwater. Left unchecked, what will come from the next conservative wave? Death camps? Disappearances? Nuclear war? The end of the Republic, surely, in all but name. America, as a reality and an idea, would be bound and thrown into the grave.

America is seperated from Orwell's 1984 by a thread. Don't be a fool and pretend otherwise. The doctrine that gave rise to this, and the criminals responsible, must be prosecuted and removed from the stage of history. I'm one who still believes Bush and Cheney must stand trial for crimes against humanity. The temptation will be strong for Democrats to let bygones be bygones, to look the other way, to just let the crimes of the past quietly disappear. Bill Clinton made that very mistake when he became President. Look where that got us.

Movement conservatism is weaker now than it has been since its ascendence 40 years ago. We must strike fast and strike hard. We must defeat this menace, this most dangerous threat to the Old Republic. President Obama has the opportunity to seize history, and revive America to its lost greatness, a greatness born of the New Deal. I suspect he may have this in mind, a New Deal of the 21st Century. I suspect he holds many cards close to his chest. Obama is a brilliant mind, perhaps the smartest political figure of our lifetimes. He will not be a fool or a patsy. This is my great hope.

With the November 4th elections, America can begin to finally dig itself out of that grave. We can still save the Republic before it's too late, before greed, corruption, and corporatism destroys it forever. Humanity doesn't have any time left on the clock. Our pollution of the earth will render the verdict of God and Mother Nature. We need to radically change course and change it now; for ourselves and our grandchildren.

Funny Thing About Those Charts

I've just noticed when scrolling through the main page here that these Pollster charts are being updated on their own. I was surprised to see Montana slipping back into McCain's side, so I checked on the Pollster site to be sure. True enough, these charts are regularly updated. If I knew this, I would have simply made a single post of the battleground states.

West Virginia - Maybe Next Time

West Virginia appeared to dance around for the past few weeks, but McCain has been leading consistently and now appears to be sealing the deal. I think this is a state we can have success with in the future, but it's more of a long-term project. The state is placed just perfectly for future "battleground" status, as Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana trend Democratic, while Kentucky, Tennessee, and the deep south remain Republican.

If I were to choose any future victories in southern states, it would be West Virginia. But maybe that's just because I really like the place. Who could resist those mountains and trees? It's like an Elvis song brought to life.

Florida - Breaking Away?

Three of the latest polls put Obama at or just above 50% in Florida, and another puts him at 49%. Add in Governor Charlie Crist's decision to extend voting hours, and the possibility of a Democratic win for the state grows.

Like many of you, I'm still carrying the burn marks from 2000, so I'm not ready to relax and smile for Florida. But if the current trends hold, we'll be going into Tuesday with the upper hand. I wouldn't be surprised to see the state moved to "Lean Dem" before then. Cross your fingers, kids.

Indiana - Down to the Wire

Looks like Indiana is going down to the wire. Earlier in the race, it appeared that McCain would take it. Then Obama seized all the momentum in the Big Ten region. Now, it's too close to call. My own suspicion - and maybe this is my hope, too, so take with a grain of salt - is that a number of these close states will, in fact, break wide open for Obama at the very last minute. Say, Monday. Once it's clear that Obama will win the Presidency, a certain bandwagon effect may kick in. People like to back a winner, and the losing side feels demoralized and may stay home.

Anyway, that's a possibility, but for now, Indiana could shift either way.

Pennsylvania - Kind of Blue

Oh no! Pennsylvania is turning purple! McCain could...well, sorta win...I guess...maybe...

Whatever. We're now less than six days away from the election. That is not a graph that is suddenly about to switch. The state is solid blue this year.

AZ - D'oh!!

I would laugh myself hysterical if John McCain lost his home state. I'd still expect him to win, even if it's only by a couple points. But an Obama upset would absolutely rock. Still in my "wishful thinking" category, along with Georgia and West Virginia.

ND - Obama's Surprise?

North Dakota has long been a safe Republican state. I honestly didn't expect it to become a battleground state in 2008, but as we've seen, this race is full of surprises. Clearly, the pollsters didn't expect this to happen, either; otherwise there would have been more polling on the state. That makes it a bit tricky when trying to gauge the voters' intentions. I think it's a smart bet to consider North Dakota a tossup right now, but we should keep a close eye this week for any new developments.

I think it's quite possible Obama can win this state; if so, it will prove a powerful psychological victory, as the new President builds a national party coalition. The 3 electoral votes won't affect the race to any meaningful degree. But to turn the Dakotas blue...now that is a powerful idea. Add in the growing Democratic successes in the Mountain region, and you're looking at the future of America.

MT - McCain's Collapse

The Rocky Mountain region is becoming the new frontier for the Democratic Party, and we're seeing real results this year of all our hard work. Colorado and New Mexico, I would expect to go blue, and stay solidly blue for the forseeable future. But Montana? Perhaps John Tester was a hint of things to come.

Still, I have to admit I'm surprised. Perhaps I should have paid closer attention. Again, we see McCain's numbers just crash in mid-September, after the financial crisis hit. His bizarre actions - "suspending" his campaign, losing all sense of direction - really was the thing that did him in. Add in the debate performances, which voters gave overwhelmingly to Obama, and we have evidence of a campaign's self-destruction.

Still, anything is possible, so we won't take anything for granted. Let's see if Montana is moved into the "leans Dem" column later this week.

GA - Very Much in Play

Georgia is going to be dangerously close. I'm still burned from the 2000 election, so I'm not willing to place bets on any tie race. It could swing either way. Yet it's very telling that this state was considered safe for McCain only a few weeks ago. A lot of the Bush 2004 states are close to turning for Obama. And that means another state the Republicans must play defense in. With the crumbling McCain-Palin campaign, and the need to save that 60th Senate seat, the options for the GOP are growing thin. I would not want to be in their shoes.

WV - Still in Play?

Kos believes West Virginia is still in play. I've been more cautious when looking at poll numbers, but he does make a compelling case with the latest DKos/Research 2K poll:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/22 - 10/24; LV; MoE 4%

McCain (R) - 49
Obama (D) - 43

I'm still a bit skeptical about West Virginia (Obama trails McCain by 10 among independents), but anything is possible in this race. Obama's standing among Democrats is 68-24, so there's still a chance of bringing those votes home. Isn't is time to finally abandon the Dixiecrats? Are any of those losers still alive? Let's work extra hard and try to win this state.

AZ - Obama Trails McCain by Two Points

Is this for real?! I'm pinching myself again. Here is a second poll which shows the Arizona race nearly tied. McCain's home state, and he leads by two? Is this for real?

As always, it's wisest not to be swept away by any one poll, but wait for others to arrive. Still, this is the second poll to show a tight race. It could be won, kids. Obama could win this state.

Is Arizona in Play?

That sounds almost unbelievable. I'll believe it when I see it, but this poll does suggest a much tighter race in Arizona. We'll see when the next round of polls appear early this week.

MN-06: Tinklenberg Ahead of Bachmann By Two

Today, a new poll by the University of MN shows Tinklenberg with a slight lead over Michelle Bachmann.

University of MN/Humphrey Institute (10/21 - 10/23); MoE: 4.7%

Tinklenberg (D) - 45
Bachmann (R) - 43
Anderson (I) - 5
Undecided - 7

Pretty much the same numbers as yesterday's poll. Bachmann is fighting for her life after last week's "anti-America" rant. Predictably enough, she tries to play it both ways in her media appearances. She apologizes for her statements, then flatly denies ever accusing Obama of being anti-American (and demanding that anti-American members of Congress be rooted out), then repeating the same charge in slightly different ways.

Bachmann made an appearance on a local radio show today, continuing to dig her own grave. Hopefully, this clip will make its rounds across the blogosphere:

But Bachmann was bringing up Chris Matthews on her own during an interview on the Mike Gallagher radio show. Bachmann raised some familiar-sounding issues just a day after her St. Cloud speech.

"What are Barack Obama's policies?" Bachmann said on the show. "Are they for America or will they be against traditional American ideals and values? And I'll tell you what, punishing tax rates, redistribution of wealth, socialized medicine, inputting censorship in the form of the un-Fairness Doctrine and taking away the secret ballot from the worker has nothing to do with traditional American values. That's why your listeners need to know. Otherwise the United States may be literally changed forever if Barack Obama becomes the next president."

Bachmann also told Gallagher and his audience that she's desperate for financial help. Her Democratic opponent, Elwyn Tinklenberg, has raised $1.3 million since Friday when Bachmann appeared on MSNBC. And, the National Republican Congressional Committee has canceled the TV ads it scheduled on Bachmann's behalf on Twin Cities stations. Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said it intends to spend more than $1 million in TV ads to defeat Bachmann.

"Desperate for financial help"? Now you understand what it meant when the NRCC pulled its ads from the district. Bachmann was left to drown in her own waters. Serves her right. Defeating this meanspirited demagogue will be one of my top goals for November 4. We must make this race a national priority. Send money now!

Tinklenberg for Congress

Is Georgia in Play?

It is appearing that way. Given the momentum of this race, I think Obama can win Georgia. That would be absolutely smashing. For us, winning is no longer the goal. The goal is the complete destruction of the Republican Party and their movement conservatism. The goal is to build the mandate for the new Democratic majority.

President Obama will face enormous challenges on the scale only faced by a few Presidents. By no coincidence these - Abraham Lincoln, FDR - are revered as America's greatest Presidents. We need every penny of political capital at our disposal.