Living in Denial

Conservative Republicans are going to find themselves on the sidelines of American life for a very long time. One key reason for this is simple denial. As long as conservatism ignores reality, wallowing in their alternate fantasy world, lost in their infantile security blanket, they will remain on the sidelines.

Johnathan Chait's opening line from his TNR article summarizes this perfectly: What part of "overwhelming electoral defeat" does the GOP not understand? The answer, of course, is very simple. The GOP does not want to understand. They've functioned in their strange alternate reality for so long, these people simply cannot function in the real world.

Better for the rest of us, I say. The tighter and tighter the hard right spins in on itself, the greater the damage to their party and the conservative brand. So go ahead. Live in denial. Make Sarah Palin the GOP standard-bearer. The longer the denial, the longer the exile. And America will simply move on.

NC - Obama Finally Wins the State

North Carolina has finally been called for Obama today. It was one of the final two states whose outcome is still being determined.

Yay!! Time for another downtown block party!!

I was hoping that Obama would win North Carolina. It was going to be close, but he just barely eeked it out. This is really more symbolic than anything, since the race is already decided, but it remains a powerful symbol nontheless. The Republican hold on the South is being broken, as the racist politics of the Southern Strategy give way to 21st Century America. We're living in a radically different nation than the America of 40 years ago. We should all feel pride and satisfaction for all our hard work.

Obama's score now stands at 364. Missouri is now the final state to be determined. I picked that state for the win, so I'll cross my fingers and hope for the best.

The Age of Stupid

Add in a lot of drunken belligerence, threats of fascism, and a couple wars, and this pretty much sums up the decade. I'm glad to see it finally end.

My Fair Lady - My Speech to the Class of 2099 (More or Less)

It's a remarkable event, one that will puzzle and amuse historians of future generations. What was John McCain thinking in choosing Sarah Palin to be his running mate? What originally appeared to be a reckless, hail-mary move born of desperation grew to a lightning rod for the nation. Palin became an instant hero to the Republican right, and a virtual laughingstock for the rest of us.

Even now, for those of us who kept track of her every move, who watched her two television interviews, it still feels almost surreal. Is Palin really that dumb? Did she really blank out on every question? Does she really not know what the Bush Doctrine is? Does she even read? I've seen some cynical politics in my day; George W. Bush was probably the apex of Republican cynicism, a spoiled lazy brat who couldn't be bothered to pick himself off the street if he wasn't born into wealth. I've never seen anything as shameless and brutally cynical as the pick of Sarah Palin.

This decision summarized our era, the whole period of conservative dominance, the era of the Wrecking Crew. They rule by propaganda and fear, selling the public on one absurd fantasy after another. And for a while it worked. No doubt they hoped they could sucker the masses one more time; just squeeze one more tank out of a broken-down car. It's stunning that McCain came so close to succeeding. This shall forever remain a blemish on the character of this nation.

Thank all that is holy that McCain and Palin were defeated. Had they won, the results could have been catastrophic. May God have mercy on your children if that woman ever gets into the White House and takes the reins of power. But the economic crisis snapped the masses out of their hypnotic daze, and they paid attention. They did the right thing.

I think this is why I'm not as eager to write Palin off. I am hopeful that the conservative era has finally closed, and that the Republican Party remains deeply divided and thoroughly defeated cannot be denied. But look at what they nearly achived. Look at what they almost did with this fool as a candidate. They offered up nothing more than a celebrity prop. If technology advances, the day will come when the Party will offer up a computer-generated character as a candidate, posing as a real person. Hell, 25% of this nation will swallow anything that's being sold by these criminals. Never discount the power of skillful magic tricks.

During the final weeks of the campaign, as the rift between McCain and Palin grew, we heard more and more rumblings from behind the scenes. Rumblings about Palin's sheer ignorance and incompetance, revelations about her lavish spending sprees, stories of an unknown who was primed to be a star, only to buy into the hype. Behold, the reality television candidate. The person you want to have a beer with.

Americans need to be smarter than this. Americans need to be more aware, more mindful, more skeptical. You need to turn off the teevee and learn to function on your own. You've been fed the fantasy from television for so long that you're beginning to believe the fantasy is real, and your own lives are illusion. Television isn't the truth. Television is a damned amusement park.

Sarah Palin, you could say, was the Television Candidate. An instant celebrity machine for the dumb proles; the biggest and brightest of all the reality competitions. Today, it's the singing contest. Tomorrow, the dancing contest. After that, the President! Being President is fun! Because, you know, you can, like, go places, and, like, do stuff. You know....umm, stuff.

Then the stock market crashes and the fantasy crashes hard into that unavoidable force called reality. The Soma of our age works its magic, but reality cannot be denied. The Republicans only hoped they could keep us drugged and dazed for just a little while longer. If you sobered up on November 5, to a Palin in the White House, so what? We win. We got our mandate.

Americans need to be smarter than this. Americans have proven that they will do the right thing, and choose to engage history when the crisis strikes. Thank goodness for that. Will you be smart and wise enough to learn? Will you be able to avoid this fate again? Even if Palin disappears completely, she will be replaced by another drone, another movie prop, another Barbie Doll which was programmed to recite talking points. Will you be smart enough to see through the illusion and reject the fantasy?

For your own sake, kids, you damn well better hope so. You will face this terrible machine at some point during your lives. It doesn't matter which generation I'm talking to. I'm talking to all of you. Yeah, you, the kid in the back row, class of 2099. Sit up and pay attention. This is going on your permenent record. I didn't risk my neck so you could beome another mindless tool. You're going to have to be smarter. Keep your wits about you and you'll be fine. Trust me on that. Good luck.

It All Seemed So Impossible

It's remarkable to reflect on the widespread belief, even among us dedicated supporters and fans, just how impossible this seemed even a few months ago.  That America would one day elect its first black President, there was never any doubt.  But now, in 2008?  I never would have believed it until I saw Barack Obama's keynote speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention.  And all this way, it seemed so unlikely.  I was fully expecting to make my peace with the latest cynical-but-competent politician, like Hillary Clinton or John Edwards or John Kerry.  Obama is cut from a different cloth.  He radiates with the glow of history.  You know this is a remarkable moment, even while you doubt it.

It always seemed so impossible.  That this has happened in 2008, after the Age of Bush, is nothing less than a miracle.

TPM's Day in 100 Seconds

Norm Coleman is a Jerk

Sorry to sound cranky, considering our historic victory last night.  This is a great day for America.  But we still have a Senate race here in Minnesota, which is headed for a long and thorough recount.  But these remarks from Norm Coleman just roiled me.  There are times when I think the man is someone I can live with, a moderate Republican and not a hardcore ideologue.  And then he goes and does something incredibly arrogant and stupid.

This election is too important to have a recount?  Are you freaking kidding me?  Haven't we had enough of prima donna Republicans who think the world owes them something?  We already sent McCain and Palin packing, with Preznit Stupid to soon follow.  I say make room on the bus for Norm.

Words That Bring Tears to My Eyes

President Obama.

I still can't believe it.

Fun Thing to do Today

Look at the newspapers from around the world. The enthusiasm and love for America is wonderful and deeply humbling. Barack Obama's Presidency is a victory for all the people of the world.

President Barack Obama

Words fail.

Why the Republicans Must Lose

Because this is what the Republican Party has become in our lifetime:

AUSTIN — State Board of Education member Cynthia Dunbar isn't backing down from her claim that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is plotting with terrorists to attack the U.S.

The Texas Freedom Network, a watchdog group that monitors the board, released a public statement on Monday asking Dunbar to retract the statement.

"I don't have anything in there that would be retractable," said Dunbar, R-Richmond. "Those are my personal opinions and I don't think the language is questionable."

In a column posted on the Christian Worldview Network Web site, Dunbar wrote that a terrorist attack on America during the first six months of an Obama administration "will be a planned effort by those with whom Obama truly sympathizes to take down the America that is threat to tyranny."

She also suggests Obama would seek to expand his power by declaring martial law throughout the country.

My Prediction for 2008

I thought it over the past few days, and in the end, I decided to stick with my "best-case" map from a week ago. I think this is closer to becoming a reality than any time in the past. And if I'm wrong, I'll only be off by a state or two.

Obama should win the popular vote by, oh...10 points. Does 10 points sound good?

Obama's score in the Electoral Vote, by this map, is 406. It'll definitely be over 350.

On the Minnesota Congressional races, I'll be a good team player and say the Dems sweep. Franken in Senate, Tinklenberg in MN-06, Media in MN-03, Sarvi in MN-02.

Turnout, as always, is the key. Rachael Maddow says the final turnout might surpass 140 million. Good lord, that's almost unheard of in American politics. There's no way all these people are showing up to defend the status quo. Americans are pissed. They hate George W. Bush and they hate the Republicans. And here's another clue for you all: McCain and Palin aren't too popular, either.

The more people that show up to play ball, the higher our score. There will be a number of red states that McCain will carry in single digits. If we could boost the African-American vote by just 10%....wow. We are a nation of hope and possibility now. It's been a very long time.

TPM's Day in 100 Seconds - Election Eve

I seriously hate these Republicans.  Nothing more than an organized crime syndicate posing as a political party.  And Sarah Palin is dumber than a bag of rocks.  I'll be glad to see them and their sorry lot kicked out of power.  The party of torture, cronyism, and the Permanent War deserves banishment for the rest of our lives.

A pox on your houses if any of you are stupid enough to be taken in by these con artists again.

Obama's Grandmother Has Died

A very sad moment. We were all hoping that she could live just long enough to see her grandson become the next President. This will draw a somber shadow over tomorrow's election.

Now we really have to work extra hard. Let's give Obama the landslide victory he deserves.

We Have a Lot of Work to Do

We're very near the end of the campaign. Don't lower your guard. Don't coast to victory. Don't expect the entrenched power to concede without a fight. Our real work begins on November 5, and January 20. We have a generation of conservative rule to overcome and a nation to repair. Every person must do their part.

Get to the polls tomorrow! Text five of your friends, and tell each of them to text five more. Pass it on!

Washington Post/ABC Poll - Obama 54, McCain 43

From the WaPo/ABC poll:

After nearly two years of ads, rallies, debates and barnstorming, Obama is up 54 to 43 percent among likely voters, in the new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll. And the ranks of persuadable voters has dwindled to 7 percent heading into the final day. One part of McCain's steep challenge is that more than a quarter of the probable electorate has already voted - among these early birds, 59 percent said they voted for Obama, 40 percent for McCain.

Obama has firmly reestablished his advantage on handling the economy (back up to 15 points) and beaten back a challenge on taxes (he's +11 there). On handling an unexpected major crisis, what had been a double-digit McCain lead to start the fall campaign, is now a 6-point advantage for Obama.

And on the measure that most often correlates to turnout, enthusiasm, Obama holds a massive 26-point advantage in deeply enthusiastic support. In late October of 2004, George W. Bush held a nine-point edge over John F. Kerry on this metric.

CBS Poll - Obama 54, McCain 41

From CBS News:

With two days left until the presidential election, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent, a new CBS News poll finds. The margin in the new poll, released Sunday, is identical to that in a CBS News poll released Saturday.

As the number of undecided voters has dwindled, so has the number that says their minds can still change. More than nine in 10 of each candidate’s voters now say they have made up their minds about who to vote for and are not likely to change. Just seven percent of Obama voters and 8 percent of McCain voters say they still might change their minds.

Final Gallup Poll - Obama 55, McCain 45

From Gallup:

PRINCETON, NJ -- The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign.

Howard Dean in Arizona on Monday

The architect of the Dems' 50-State Strategy will make one final push for Arizona tomorrow. Great news, just great news. This election is a great vindication for Howard Dean. A major political party that's competitive throughout the country. Huh. Imagine that.

All of our hard work during the long Bush years will pay off on Tuesday.

We Need a Landslide on Tuesday