Why Kinect is Doomed to Fail

Because Microsoft has not earned the right to innovate.  As a result, they have faced a backlash from their core customers, which will cripple any attempts to seriously pursue Nintendo.

I've visited the Kinect camp at the Mall of America a couple times; I tell myself to visit again, if only to see how good Harmonix' Dance Central is, but I'm not feeling much interest in the idea.  Do I really have to go?  What would be the point?  It's something I'll probably have to force myself to do, sigh.  Duty calls.

Microsoft simply doesn't understand why the Nintendo Wii is a runaway success.  They don't understand the values of the new paradigm, who this new Expanded Market is, or why they are drawn to games like Wii Sports and Wii Fit.  Who knows?  Perhaps Microsoft really does understand, but are trapped within the old paradigm.  The "hardcore" era of Cinematic Games, with extravagant production values and HDTV graphics, becomes an albatross around their neck in the wake of Wii's disruption.

Meanwhile, while Microsoft has been setting billions of dollars on fire playing games, Apple and Google have taken over the mobile market.  Jittery investors should be terrified of Google.  They'll be coming for Windows and Office, mark my words.  Even giants can be killed.