Friday, October 31, 2008
Betting Pool - Let's Look at the Map Again
Last weekend, I posted something that was slightly tongue-in-cheek, and that was my best-case prediction for the Presidential election. Here it is again. To the best of my ability - based on all the polling data, the mood of the voters, various blogs, expectations of higher turnout - this was my scenario for a complete Obama blowout. These were the maximum number of states we could win on Tuesday.
Well, it's been the better part of a week, and we're heading into the final push. How does that map look now? Better. Much better. My dreams are far closer to reality, and I quite glad I took this stab when I did. My more cautious side kept wanting to go back and tinker around - maybe not this state, maybe not that one. Thank goodness I kept my ground. Besides, there's nothing at stake except bragging rights, and maybe a little bit of publicity for me and my blog
So where does Obama stand now? I think this map is doable, very doable. But it will not be easy. We will all need to work very hard these final days to push out as many voters as possible. This final weekend is crucial. Any bandwagon effect should start to kick in. We've seen it among moderate and old-school Republicans, and this may happen among the voters as well. Is LA really a 3-point race? Is that even possible? At this point in the story, anything is possible.
To my eyes and ears, the long-shot wins now include Montana, Georgia, and Indiana. I think those will be the toughest. I think we can win Arizona. I think N. Carolina will be won. Same goes for Ohio and Florida. They're Obama states now. Missouri is real close, very close. But the memory of that 100,000 crowd for Obama is too much to resist. I say we win Missouri.
Update (9:51 pm cdt):
My guess for Obama's final score is somewhere between 350-400 EV's. This best-case victory would put us over 400, a spectacular and historic victory. That's my over-optimistic hope. It's very interesting that there are so many states which are essentially tied. There are a lot of toss-ups out there, and it will come down to the ground game and turnout. Those, naturally, are nearly impossible to predict. But for the moment, I shall put my cynical "realism" aside and dream of walking on the moon.
If you wanted my "realistic" take on November 4, that being the more cautios and conservative one, here's what I'd say. Obama wins all the 2004 Kerry states, plus the following: Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota are possible pickups, but essentially they're toss-ups. Arizona, Georgia, and Montana are mad dreams of grandeur. And Ohio and Florida will remains corrupt swamps until the end of the world or the Republican Party, whichever is first.
Worst Case Scenario: Voting machines break down everywhere. Voting rolls are purged by the million. America, it turns out, is still just as racist as it was during the Jim Crow era, and Bradly Effect kicks in big time. The election is either tied or it's a slight McCain win. McCain is sworn into office, promptly drops dead from a heart attack/stroke, and then President Sarah Palin declares war on pretty much everyone. Most Americans conviently forget George W. Bush, then proceed to go through the whole damned farce all over again, note for note.
Oh, and Metallica will put out a new album that is hailed as a triumphant comeback, but is so heavily compressed and brick-walled that it's physically impossible to listen to. Oh, wait. D'oh!