Saturday, October 25, 2008

Election Betting Pool - My Best Case Scenario

Since we're winding down the election, it's getting close to place our bets for the office pools. By now, all but the most lumpen-headed among us are aware that Barack Obama will become our next President on November 4. The trick is to guess what his final victory will look like.

This graphic shows my own personal "Best Case Scenario." I don't expect the election to swing in Obama's favor quite this heavily. But in the event of a landslide, I think this is the best possible scenario. Some of these states, like Georgia and Arizona, are long-shots (read: not too likely). Indiana, Montana, and North Dakota could swing either way. Ohio and Florida are blue, if the polling is any indication, but I won't trust any final result until all the votes are counted. Missouri should swing to Obama, alongside Virginia and North Carolina.

All of the existing blue states will stay firmly in the Obama column. The race now will close out in the red states. Given the troubled economy, McCain's continued bungling, and any fallout from the McCain-Palin fissure (to say nothing of overall turnout), I'd say McCain is in trouble in every close state. Where he is at 50% or higher, he's safe.

This is purely for fun. You can pull this map out in a couple weeks and have a good laugh at my expense. Hah! You thought this state could be won? What the heck were YOU thinking? Hah hah!

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