Thursday, October 23, 2008

MN-06: Tinklenberg 47, Bachmann 44

I couldn't miss tonight's public poll of the MN-06 race. Just how much damage did Michelle Bachmann inflict upon herself with last Friday's McCarthyist rant? It appears to have completely changed the race. What was once considered an easy victory has now changed to a three-point lead for challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg.

According to the SurveyUSA poll, here's how the numbers break down:

Tinklenberg (D) - 47%
Bachmann (R) - 44%
Bob Anderson (I) - 6%
Undecided - 2%

You can scan through all the internals if you want. Very interesting. Note how the political ideology breaks down:

Conservative: B - 80; T - 13
Moderate: B - 29; T - 63
Liberal: B - 10%; T - 83

This must have been the numbers the NRCC was seeing when they decided to pull their ads out of the race. Bachmann has a lock on conservatives, but moderates? Look at those numbers, kids. Tinklenberg holds an almost 3-to-1 lead.

Take a look at this one. We would expect Bachmann to hold the religious vote easy, but the numbers skew the same as political leanings:

Attend Religious Service

Regular: B - 50; T - 43
Occasion: B - 40; T - 50
Almost Never: B - 35; T - 56

This is just stunning. I expected Bachmann's numbers here to mirror her support among conservatives. But among regular churchgoers, she leads by 7. Tinklenberg is at 50% or higher for the other groups. In fact, no numbers poll heavily for Bachmann except conservatives. Beyond party affiliation, there's nothing. Hell, Tink even leads by 3 among those earning over $50K.

No wonder the Republican Party cut Michelle Bachmann loose. She could shore up a few more conservative votes, but that's pretty unlikely at this late stage, especially given the McCain defeat. It's going to come down to morale and turnout, and frankly, I'm fired up to help win this for Tinklenberg. I'll be working my tail off these final days. Can you expect Bachmann's conservative base to say the same?

I say this race is over. Bachmann is going to be fired. Good riddance. She can come back home and stalk gay parades.

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